Lieberman-Warner almost on calendar

CQ is reporting today that Senator Boxer (Chair of Environment and Public Works, the  Senate committee of jurisdiction on climate change) has gotten Majority Leader Reid to agree to call up S.2191 in early June.  The article also notes that Boxer is vowing to kill the bill if any amendments significantly weakening it pass during floor debate.

It will be fairly difficult for this bill to pass a 60-vote threshold once the floor process is done, but even before it gets to that point some observers have wondered whether the Senate can get 60 votes to prevent a filibuster blocking the bill’s consideration.  With Boxer vowing to wait until the 111th Session in January 2009 if anything less than a solid bill makes it through the floor process, we doubt this bill is going anywhere this year.  Although there are many fence-sitters up for reelection in November who might consider moving on this bill, few are going to see a climate change package as make-or-break on their reelections.

If S.2191 does survive the floor process and is passed by the full Senate, the chances are nil that the House will pass a similar bill and a Conference Committee will be set before the end of this year.