Carbon regulation policy as of Feb 08

Chances continue to hold somewhere between slim and none for passage of any greenhouse gas mitigation legislation before February 2009, and more likely November 2009.

Despite great optimism from the enviro community about the potential for GHG regulations after the Democrat sweep in the 2006 Congressional elections, it was always quite clear that as long as the Bush Administration still occupies the White House there will be no movement on carbon emissions. That understanding was cemented two days ago when it was revealed that EPA Administrator Johnson denied California’s Clean Air Act waiver request (20-Dec story) over the objections of most of his senior staff. (Administrator Johnson was not installed in his position because he would be willing to stray from White House wishes on major policy questions.)

Is passage of anything during the 110th Congress (ending this December) likely? Our guess is no.Congress will flee the D.C. heat in July, and for the most part stay away for the campaigns through early-November (they usually return to business after Labor Day), leaving little time to get anything done this year. Considering that only one carbon bill has even seen committee markup (S.2191 was passed out of EPW in the Senate; Rep. Dingell continues to be a roadblock to House movement), chances are slim that a bill could see final passage. Final passage means committee hearings and markups in both chambers (at least two committees in the Senate and four in the House will have different pieces of the bills), floor debate and passage in both chambers, a Conference Committee process to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate bills, then approval of the Conference Committee’s compromise bill by both chambers.

Although leadership in both chambers is unlikely to change after November’s elections, Congress is unlikely to plow through this process with a new President and a new Congress seated in January 2009.